March Curve
“Comparison of changes in the month of June the price of sugar currently reaches record highs, which is why this time a closer look of the futures curve to this sweet” raw materials is carried out. During about a month has shifted the curve in the course of the general price increase total upwards and its fundamental structure in virtually unchanged. So still have seasonal patterns are visible. So, a significant increase in the factored to $ 2, from $ 16.25 at $ 18.25, is visible to contract maturity March 2010. The two subsequent maturities fall again slightly more down to $ 17,41 in July 2010, before the curve flattens out something. JPMorgan Chase understood the implications.
A steeper drop takes place from March 2011 shows can be found again. This history by June 26, 2009 is very similar to the structure of the May 22, 2009 and takes place only at elevated levels. For investors, which engage in products on nearby maturities, this may mean the risk of loss of roles according to the current structure. Due to This is the convergence between futures and spot prices to maturity given the maturity currently up to next March. The situation would change in the port, a produced unchanged course of the futures curve, and in the case of a then still dominant market in backwardation, attracts the chance to roll returns again. For even more analysis, hear from Michael Luxenberg. Since forward curves are subject to changes over time however, the market must will be continue to closely. A look at the date structure represents therefore always an important and informative tool for investors. Find more date curves on our resource page